User blog comment:Rhonda the stalker fan!/The Legend of Total Drama Island Storyteller Prediction Blog (or Tonight On Rhonda! Who Is The Baby Mama?)/@comment-1874924-20180120015231

Thanks so much for this, Rhonda. I had no real hope of ever seeing any kind of ranking/prediction blog for LTDI until you broached this idea. Leave it to Commodore Rhonda to come up with what amounts to a ship-based ranking. As I've mentioned elsewhere, I always like to hear your theories because, even when they're totally incorrect, they tend to be pretty well reasoned out.

I did notice a few possibly relevant factors you didn't mention. Some may bolster the case for certain candidates, whereas others may weaken them:

One other factor to consider: Which of these girls would be inclined (or not) to carry an unintended pregnancy to term? Gwen and Beth seem more likely to because of their upbringing. Heather currently seems less likely to, but that could change if she gets the right character development. Most of the others seem like they could go either way.
 * 1) Heather is the most popular suspect for two major reasons. One, as you mentioned, is that she is the most prominent camper in the story. If we use mentions by name as a reasonable (if imperfect) proxy for "screen" time, she as a third more reps than the next-most mentioned camper (currently Katie, with Courtney close behind) at about 1300 to 980. The second major reason is that, in TD competition stories, "did pretty well but didn't win" is the standard fate of the main antagonist, which Heather clearly is. The paternity poll on LTDI's talk page shows Alejandro as a popular choice for the father, and I suspect most of those votes are from people who think Heather is the mother based on their canonical relationship, although their LTDI counterparts have had little interaction.
 * 2) Courtney, on the other hand, has never gained much traction in the reader poll, even after it became clear she would be one of the mains, which is why I found it especially interesting that she was your prime suspect for so long. I suspect the reason more people don't share your view is that, for all the evidence in her favor, she does have one potentially disquaifying factor, namely the increasing reader perception that she's likely to win.
 * 3) Katie's memory problem is specifically with her short-term memory. Her long-term memory is fine. While she's not as smart as some of the other girls (most explicitly Sadie) she's no Lindsay, either. Indeed, her riddle duel in the just-concluded pirate treasure challenge suggests she's reasonably bright. Moreover, the Storyteller is recounting long-past details with inhuman precision (The "infallible narrator" trope) so parsing the girls' relative intelligence may--may--rest on a flawed assumption. As for the unlikelihood of Katie never mentioning "Aunt Sadie", well, there's no getting around certain points ... unless Sadie passed away before Brett was old enough to remember her. Although Sadie seems unlikely to die on the island at this point, she may have some of the same health issues as Owen. On the other hand, that could bring your "crazy theory" into play, but with Katie raising Sadie's son instead of the other way around.
 * 4) Occam's Razor is a logical preference, not an inviolable rule of logic, so it argues against your "crazy theory" but doesn't disprove it.
 * 5) Izzy is a dozen years or more older than the other campers, ineligible to win because of that, and strong in the challenges. Moreover, her ineligibility means she could have a tryst, or even hook up properly, with someone in authority without creating conflicts of interest. This means Izzy as the mother suddenly makes Chris and Chef plausible candidates for the father. In Chris' case, his not being in his son's and baby mama's lives could be just a matter of not wanting to be tied down and regarding financial support (which Chris would probably call "hush money") as his only obligation. Or ... back to your "crazy theory": What if Dawn was the real mother (most likely with D.J.) but met with an accident and her longtime friend (and quite possibly godmother to her son) Izzy/Becky was raising the orphaned boy because his father couldn't support him?
 * 6) In addition to the reasons you cited, the absence of Brett's father could also be explained by his mother simply not telling him for reasons that seemed good to her.
 * 7) Brett's mother saying she hates people who can pass as much younger than their actual age was meant facetiously. She claimed to hate such women because  she is going prematurely gray, "on track to become a striking 'silver fox' by the time she was forty."  But yeah, Izzy saying that does seem to contradict what we know about her.
 * 8) Lindsay has objected in-story to the suggestion that she's dumb, so intelligence (or lack thereof) doesn't necessarily disqualify her from being the Storyteller. The bigger problem is her signature malapropism. Can you imagine a malaproper like Lindsay telling a story like LTDI? Personally, I think it would be hilarious--to people who could follow it at all. As for the requirement that Lindsay's brain "grows three sizes", do I smell a Grinch reference? Points in Lindsay's favor are that (a) she does have an established love interest; and (b) she could reasonably say she did "pretty well" because she's been strong albeit inconsistent in the challenges, much as Beth was in TDA.
 * 9) Leshawna doesn't really seem a good candidate at the moment, but she could yet become one if she acquires a love interest or simply gets horny. She's probably still a few episodes from the point where she would say she did "pretty well". She's had a few "blink and you missed it" ship teases, most recently with fellow camper Cody (during the trust challenge) and new intern Ryan (during the Labors of Heracles challenge).
 * 10) Eva, as you suggested, would probably not be inclined to say she did well ... unless she focused on her performance in the challenges, which was impressive, and blotted her social missteps from her memory. Beth's expecations were probably low enough coming in that she could believe she did well despite failing to reach the merge, especially considering the unusual circumstances of her elimination. Sadie is perhaps marginal vis-a-vis placement, but had nothing to be ashamed of in the challenges. Because she was blindsided, whether she thinks she did well overall could depend on whether she thinks she should have seen the blindsiding coming. Bridgette does indeed seem unlikely to believe she did well by any measure. Moreover, she was stated to have been invited back for the 3rd season, declining because "fame and fortune were only worth so much". Having a young child to are for would have been a much more pragmatic reason for declining to return to such a dangerous game.

Izzy is a special case here. On one hand, she's older and already established in her career. On the other hand, she requires unspecified medication to control her psychiatric symptoms, and taking them is a requirement of her plea bargain, but many medications are unsafe to take during pregnancy. You well know I wouldn't be above exploiting a detail like that if it suited the story I wanted to tell.